The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators jumped 1.7 percent in January to 88.5, based on a 1997 benchmark of 100.
This is the third consecutive month of gains in excess of 1 percent. Over the past six months the index has risen 10.7 percent, and all indicators have shown improvement over that period.
While the UO Index is consistent with solid economic growth, that growth has yet to translate into significant overall job gains, said Tim Duy, director of the Oregon Economic Forum and a UO adjunct assistant professor.
Labor market indicators are showing improvement. The pace of layoffs is clearly moderating; initial unemployment claims declined again, finally slipping below the highs reached in the 2001 recession.
There is some evidence that firms are looking to expand hiring. Employment services payrolls — largely temporary employment firms — rose to their highest levels since February 2009. Still, said Duy, the overall labor market improvements remain meager.
The initially reported December nonfarm payrolls gain was revised to a loss, while January 2010 saw a rise of just 1,100 jobs. The revisions also revealed that job losses during the recession of 146,800 were deeper than the originally reported loss of 120,000 jobs.
Residential building permits rose again, bringing activity to the level of April 2009.
The Oregon weight-distance tax — a measure of trucking activity — climbed as a firming economy and ongoing inventory correction necessitated more shipping activity.
Like the U.S. economy, the Oregon economy is bouncing off the recession lows of last summer, Duy said.
The strength of the initial phase of the recovery has been boosted by fiscal and monetary stimulus and a solid inventory correction that has boosted orders throughout the manufacturing sector, he said.
The labor market response to improving conditions, however, has been tepid at best, he added. While overall job losses have largely ended, concerns about the sustainability of growth appears to be leaving firms cautious about hiring; rising activity at temporary employment firms is a hopeful sign this caution is easing.
Still, said Duy, stronger, sustained growth will be required to significantly replace the jobs lost during the recession.